Trade The Journey

Trade The Journey

Cheating Myself!

Greetings, I hope everyone is safe and positive during these challenging times.

Reading the current events section once was an easy and quick read, now it may take hours to digest what’s happening.

The supreme court is involved in a battle for the release of Donald Trump’s tax returns, unemployment continues to increase, the Coronavirus shows no signs of slowing down, and the tension between China and the US has never been higher.

Now to remain somewhat sane, I had to stop following the news so closely. Fear that the economy may emerge from the pandemic permanently scarred increases by the day. States are under pressure to re-open at the risk of its citizens.

The economy has mainly come to a halt, and the government doesn’t seem as eager to support its citizens as are other countries. The sad and unfortunate part of this pandemic is that it will allow America to incorporate.

Slowly we can see the small business dream becoming more of an illusion in the future.

Last Saturday, I received my first order for market research.

The orderer wanted to know if I could identify what the great investors and institutions were thinking and feeling at the time. They wanted to know what investments they were making and what they were shorting.

We started at one price, and slowly, I allowed the price to decrease at the thought of losing business. The time frame stated in the beginning was a week, and towards the end of the negotiation, it ended at three days.

This was the first project I had undertaken, and I was nervous. Each order is rated and if my first rating was a bad one, people would be hesitant to place an order.

So I agreed upon the new terms, which ultimately benefited the orderer. Each day, I spent hours reading articles, comparing statistics, and documenting what I found.

At the agreed-upon time, I submitted the work for the project. During the working period, I stalled on sending the official offer, scared that my work wouldn’t match the price. I ended up sending the work alongside the offer, and the person never sent the payment.

What a stupid thing to do!

The result is what I focused on initially, and then I shifted my focus to the events leading up to the result.

Had I believed in the value of my report, I wouldn’t have allowed the time and price to be changed.

After completing the report, I felt unsure of the quality of the project until I saw a headline on Bloomberg confirming what I reported within the project.

I want to think that the person found value in my report, but I suspect they did not. What they were looking for was an instant recipe.

Unfortunately, I think I thought of the report as a means to conduct further research to pinpoint an investment that would suit them. So either I can adjust to the request of providing clear cut investment suggestions or continue to providing reports with the hope that the customer understands what investing really means. Investing is the most challenging business I’ve participated in thus far. Its a constant change, and you can’t be sure of what will happen next.

The great investors were reluctant to predict the future in such a volatile time.  Instead of taking chances, some of the investors decided to wait until the environment was more favorable to a profitable investment.

Some investors actively invested in the markets with a long-term outlook, purchasing stocks in small amounts. It’s incredibly difficult to mimic the moves of the greatest investors. For one, you’d have to know why they entered the investment to determine when to exit the investment.

I’d assume you’d have to know the industry intimately, in which the great investors have people completing the research. Great investments require the effort to match.

At first, I felt the pain of stupidity and regret because of the time spent completing the project—however, that’s not a wise approach to dealing with a mistake.

I feel that this experience allowed me to see the value of what I can produce.

A common trait of all the investors was the ability they had to look past the current events. Instead, they looked at how the current circumstances could contribute to various scenarios in the future.

The best probability of a scenario influenced where they placed an investment. Hopefully, you can learn from this situation.

This past week:

Most of last week, I abided by the stay at home orders although businesses are beginning to re-open. Situations like this make you wonder if the government is being overly sensitive. They re-opened states in the south, and nothing seems to have happened. The coronavirus numbers have not edged higher.

Am I being overly cautious? Is all this even necessary?

Time will tell.

The only troubling part is that human lives are at stake. My discretionary spending remained low. There’s not much to spend money on, and with the uncertainty involving the economy, wasteful spending should cease.

Everything is changing, and the laws once cemented are now blurry. During these times, trends, once thought to need many years to emerge, have now been thrust to the forefront. Technology once thought of as convenience is now increasingly becoming a necessity.

What this means for the average American in the future is both inevitable and uncertain. Prepare yourself for the times ahead is the best advice I could provide.

The picture of the post is famed investor Howard Marks.

I’d like to give myself a “C” for maintenance.

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