Trade The Journey

Trade The Journey

Four Years Later…

Top of the Morning! Happy Fourth of July. Everything feels normal again, well, almost. The race to vaccinate 70% of the population has slowed, as the population’s unvaccinated remained resistant. The goal was 70% by July 4th.

While driving, I noticed a small vaccination site under a freeway underpass offering testing and vaccination shots. Not one person occupied any of the open twenty seats. Sadly, minorities have the lowest rates, with African-Americans having the lowest vaccinated rate in the United States.

Another noticeable trend I see is the hiring signs draped along businesses’ fences and walls. We are hiring; the sign reads while listing the potential benefits of their open job position.

People are reluctant to return to work at jobs that either paid a low wage or rescinded their flexible work arrangements. There are now options for the employees to work gig jobs, jobs with more flexible arrangements, or start their own business.

These opportunities always existed, but with the Pandemic, these avenues became even more popular. Companies need employees to meet the rising demand. They are willing to pay employees more because they have been flushed with cash. Low rates, strong demand, and the supply of money has increased.

To help spur the economy to recovery, the Federal Reserve has to remain an accommodating friend. Some believe that the Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to take high incoming inflation more seriously is a mistake.

Recently, the Federal Reserve has indicated a rate increase in 2023 and maybe as early as 2022.

Prices are increasing, and no one can deny that. The question is how long prices will keep increasing?

At what point do we see prices increase enough to slow demand. Treasury Yields have slowed their steady increase, which is a good sign that the economy may be steadying.

Only time will tell, as the Coronavirus variants remain a concern. So far, the vaccines have provided protection against each of the variants.

Around the world, the situation is a little direr as the delta variant continues to cause re-enforcement of masks and small shut-downs to prevent its spread.

Time will tell.


I never envisioned that my trading journey would stand the test of time. I thought it to be it would be another business that started with enthusiasm and ended with disappointment.

None of the businesses I started previously ended with failure per se. In fact, in most of them, I was going steady and slowly improving, but it wasn’t fast enough.

Things weren’t happening as I planned. These businesses required concentrated effort consistently, and I didn’t realize that at the time. I’d compare my progress to someone else’s progress and determine I wasn’t moving fast enough.

I had no conception of what starting a business entailed.

One could also say that I was searching for something I was passionate about.

If you’re passionate about something, you will do it for free and without recognition because you love it.

All of the good businesses I started didn’t revolve around a passion. Well, that statement is entirely true because one business I plan on starting once I achieve my goals is a non-profit called “Undeclared.”

I didn’t initially realize the markets and trading would serve as a release for my critical thinking and forecasting skills. In college, I participated in the entrepreneurship program, and through the program, we were able to take a test that assessed our natural strengths and weaknesses.

I earned a high rating in foresight, looking ahead and planning a route to get there. The reviewer suggested I continually forming goals to avoid depression or feelings of loss.

 

What better trait to have for trading than a high rating in foresight?
Unfortunately, I have yet to transform a natural strength into profits.

 

Every day for the last three years, I’ve been putting in close to five hours per day, reading, studying, and watching the market. Recently, I’ve had a string of losses that caused me to reevaluate my trading system.

With a small account size, I decided to focus on trading options exclusively.

At first, I felt an undeniable excitement learning about trading and investing. I read book after book until I had read all of the books recommended by the top traders. Slowly, I begin to realize what trading was about, and it wasn’t constant excitement.

It was about psychology, emotional control, pattern recognition, volume averages, and identifying reference levels. If all of the reading and reflection got me to this point of semi-understanding the market, I am satisfied but not fulfilled.

Amazingly, I keep returning to trading despite the obstacles and distractions. I learned a bit about crypto and thought that this new exciting technology would distract me, but it didn’t.

A passion for more than money is needed to succeed in the markets and weather the bad times. For me, it’s the constant engagement that the market requires that intrigues me the most.

I learn fast, and most of the employment I’ve held is fairly manageable and predictable. Each workday is similar to the next, and the paycheck for a workweek is reasonably certain. The variables affecting your chances of losing your employment are mostly under your control.

If you are dependable, apply yourself and work well with others, you’ll move up in the company and keep your job. None of these traits will equal profits with any certainty in the markets, and often these traits hinder a trader’s progress.

In the work world, effort equals success, but in trading, effort guarantees no success. A sense of attachment to your position can grow due to your intense research and analysis, making it difficult for you to cut the position if it’s losing money.

Every trading day is different, and each days’ variables affecting your trade may be known, but most likely, it isn’t. How will you deal with this uncertainty?

Your answer will determine how you approach the market. If you’re in the market long enough, you’ll understand that “uncertainty” is the only certainty the market guarantees.

I ultimately realized that running faster doesn’t guarantee that you’ll win the race. I changed how I read and studied the market by slowing the amount books I read and reflecting more often. Applying the information is my new purpose instead of acquiring a vast amount of information.

If you’re reading this and wondering what I have gotten myself into, that’s an excellent thought to have. The markets are complex and should be respected, as millions of people interact in their best interest. Their ideas, reflections, analysis, and livelihoods are reflected in the current price of a stock.

I have accepted that Trading is a life-long journey for me. I plan to give away my profits in the end, after starting a new trend of generational wealth in my family.


This past week in Review:

I continue to cut my weekly expenses, and they’re still isn’t enough money for me to trade. Money for trading should be money that you expect to lose and hope to profit on. My immediate goal is to close all of my credit accounts.

I am close to $45,000 in debt which includes school debt. Not bad, considering I have family members who have school debt totaling $100,000. If you live an ordinary lifestyle with a kid and a mortgage, how soon will you pay off this debt, including interest?

My guess is not anytime soon. Student loan debt is with you for life and cannot be closed even after declaring bankruptcy.

Life is a neverending cycle of the unexpected and the expected. Take advantage of those cycles where your expenses are manageable, and you have the excess money to save for the unexpected and pay off debt.

Don’t be afraid of the slow or boring times because real progress is made during these times. Most people engage in an activity like watching tv or indulging in something that takes away from a life that lacks constant excitement.

A lot of money flows out to maintain a lifestyle of constant excitement.

Grade: C
Reason: Need to work on balancing frugality between detriment and benefits

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