Trade The Journey

Trade The Journey

The Week Ahead Report

This is the first report for traders and investors preparing for the week ahead. The goal of this report is to provide traders & investors with the information needed to successfully trade in the week ahead. Although it’s impossible to predict what surprising events may occur, some of the sentiment and action will center around the economic reports. The week ahead features several economic reports traders and investors should watch because they will move the markets.

April 10th: Wholesale Inventories
April 11th: NFIB Small Business Optimism
April 12th: CPI
April 13th: PPI and Initial Claims
April 14th: Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Preliminary, Business Inventories, and Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

April 14th also marks the beginning of the first quarter earnings reports in 2023 beginning with banks which should be interesting because of recent week events.

Major Concerns: Inflation, Consumer Health, Fed Rate hikes and Production and capacity levels. 

Some industries that may move with a higher inflation reading: Commodities like Gold which reached a high recently, defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare, energy.

Some industries that may move with a lower inflation reading: Consumer discretionary, materials, higher bond prices and industrials

This weeks’ possible trades are based on my preference for technical patterns and stocks affected by inflation and consumer confidence.

Dollar General

Commentary: The ADX faces resistance at 54. The DMI+ crossed the DMI- this past week. DG prices stopped by the 20 SMA, a small pullback in the short-term trend? The put/call ratio for the DG is somewhat high, 0.90.

Caesars Entertainment

Commentary:  The ADX is in a downtrend from 58 to 44. DMI- crossed the DMI+ and the ADX is around 17, meaning that the trend is extremely weak. Casinos’ depend on consumers having money to spend and essentially waste, and income available for discretionary purchases are dwindling. The trend seems to be sideways.

Implied volatility is a higher than the average on the option series that expires next week. The put/call ratio is slightly in favor of calls while the put/call open interest ratio shows double the calls held by participants.

CAT: Caterpillar

Caterpillar is a well known industrial stock. The RSI is nearing oversold level and peaked reecently at 50. The DMI- overtook the DMI+ a week ago and the ADX

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